Been a fan of Ioan's books for a few years now and just discovered and subscribed to this Substack. I had high expectations and still came out impressed.
This is hands-down the best article I've read about amlo's security policy. Comprehensive, nonpartisan, thorough, direct.
It's been fascinating to me seeing the shift in amlo's doctrine, it seems like what started as "Abrazos, no balazos" turned into "abrazos, a veces balazos" and is now in the "abrazos, también balazos" phase.
I think any serious attempt at combating the narco problem must be two-pronged: the abrazos side must ensure our youth has real chances at quality education and dignified work ie. livable wages and work/life balance. The bitter balazos aspect should be a strong military deterrence policy aimed at keeping the population safe from extortion, human trafficking, and collateral damage from cartel in-fighting.
While our military is far from perfect and certainly not immune to corruption, I believe it is our most solid gov't institution and currently the best tool for the job (im talking about both SEDENA and SEMAR). In online circles, this is a controversial opinion, but as the article says, most people are in favor of military prescence in our streets.
The sign that showed me ALMO is clueless is that he wanted to model a unit after “UN Peacekeeping Troops.” Does he have any idea how ineffective and useless they are? The sign that made me question if he is corrupt is his demands that were made to have Cienfuegos released. Solid work as always Ioan.
PS again: By calling it "doctrine" you are suggesting that there is one and dressing it up more that it deserves. I don't think that is the case. AMLO is adjusting to the situation as he goes along.
Amlo must be stoped, because is dangerous. whit the pact whit cartel drugs and insecurity, for example in Zacatecas México, that city is example of crime, a beautifull city but in dangerous, is What mexicans will live in rest of country
Wow! ! You've written a whopper of an article here. I should have taken notes while I was reading it, but I didn't realize how long it is and just kept reading. My comments are random and not organized in any way like going from the most important to the least. So here we go:
Alejandro Hope has said in other fora that the Guardia is not deployed where the hot-spots are. In my opinion, when they do deploy they (and I'm including the Army here) they leave no sufficient security infrastructure in place to maintain the peace. Remember that the Guardia was first deployed by AMLO to put a lid on migration from Central America. A role that they were designed to perform and there were holes in it.
It has been said that with AMLO giving the Army so many responsibilities that it will be difficult to roll that back.
I believe that Calderon was on the right track in standing up the Federal Police. They were FBI trained, earned a decent salary, lived in protected housing, had life insurance as well as other benefits. I believe ENP neglected it and it eventually died under AMLO. The Federal Police had extensive investigative and intelligence capabilities. I think a thousand or so is the number. It may be more. The Guardia? Only a few hundred. They are mainly a patrolling force according to some analysts (maybe Hope said this at one time).
I believe ENP won by the election over AMLO by .06%, not 6%.
Someone said the coup-planning and executing then is not in the Mexican military's DNA as compared to other Latin American militaries (this might have been Hope, but I'm not sure).
"Doctrine" (in US mil terms) implies that there was serious analysis applied to the problem and expected outcomes; maybe even with milestones attached that are closely monitored. It takes years to apply. I don't see this here.
Great article! Cheers.
Been a fan of Ioan's books for a few years now and just discovered and subscribed to this Substack. I had high expectations and still came out impressed.
This is hands-down the best article I've read about amlo's security policy. Comprehensive, nonpartisan, thorough, direct.
It's been fascinating to me seeing the shift in amlo's doctrine, it seems like what started as "Abrazos, no balazos" turned into "abrazos, a veces balazos" and is now in the "abrazos, también balazos" phase.
I think any serious attempt at combating the narco problem must be two-pronged: the abrazos side must ensure our youth has real chances at quality education and dignified work ie. livable wages and work/life balance. The bitter balazos aspect should be a strong military deterrence policy aimed at keeping the population safe from extortion, human trafficking, and collateral damage from cartel in-fighting.
While our military is far from perfect and certainly not immune to corruption, I believe it is our most solid gov't institution and currently the best tool for the job (im talking about both SEDENA and SEMAR). In online circles, this is a controversial opinion, but as the article says, most people are in favor of military prescence in our streets.
Cheers and good day, everybody.
The sign that showed me ALMO is clueless is that he wanted to model a unit after “UN Peacekeeping Troops.” Does he have any idea how ineffective and useless they are? The sign that made me question if he is corrupt is his demands that were made to have Cienfuegos released. Solid work as always Ioan.
PS again: By calling it "doctrine" you are suggesting that there is one and dressing it up more that it deserves. I don't think that is the case. AMLO is adjusting to the situation as he goes along.
Amlo must be stoped, because is dangerous. whit the pact whit cartel drugs and insecurity, for example in Zacatecas México, that city is example of crime, a beautifull city but in dangerous, is What mexicans will live in rest of country
Wow! ! You've written a whopper of an article here. I should have taken notes while I was reading it, but I didn't realize how long it is and just kept reading. My comments are random and not organized in any way like going from the most important to the least. So here we go:
Alejandro Hope has said in other fora that the Guardia is not deployed where the hot-spots are. In my opinion, when they do deploy they (and I'm including the Army here) they leave no sufficient security infrastructure in place to maintain the peace. Remember that the Guardia was first deployed by AMLO to put a lid on migration from Central America. A role that they were designed to perform and there were holes in it.
It has been said that with AMLO giving the Army so many responsibilities that it will be difficult to roll that back.
I believe that Calderon was on the right track in standing up the Federal Police. They were FBI trained, earned a decent salary, lived in protected housing, had life insurance as well as other benefits. I believe ENP neglected it and it eventually died under AMLO. The Federal Police had extensive investigative and intelligence capabilities. I think a thousand or so is the number. It may be more. The Guardia? Only a few hundred. They are mainly a patrolling force according to some analysts (maybe Hope said this at one time).
I believe ENP won by the election over AMLO by .06%, not 6%.
Someone said the coup-planning and executing then is not in the Mexican military's DNA as compared to other Latin American militaries (this might have been Hope, but I'm not sure).
Ha ha. Sounds good.
"Doctrine" (in US mil terms) implies that there was serious analysis applied to the problem and expected outcomes; maybe even with milestones attached that are closely monitored. It takes years to apply. I don't see this here.